UK RICS house prices (Jun) 00:01 BST
The Bank of England’s credit conditions survey showed that banks plan to make more mortgage finance available and, more importantly, that they plan on loosening lending terms. Analysts expect another sizeable improvement in this survey, suggesting the pace of price declines is moderating. UK DCLG house prices (May) 09:30 BST
The DCLG (formerly ODPM) house price index is the last of the house price indices to be released for the month of May so tends not to be as significant for the markets as the Nationwide or Halifax release. The annual rate of house price deflation is expected to moderate.
UK CPI (Jun) 09:30 BST
Inflation has surprised to the upside in four of the last five months, which looks to be attributable to the pass through of rising import costs from weaker sterling. Largely imported goods such as cars and audiovisual equipment have seen the biggest price gains. Base effects from lower energy prices should see headline inflation fall to 2.1% in June and then fall below target by September. But recent gains in energy prices are likely to mean that the period of CPI inflation being below target will prove short-lived.
US PPI (Jun) 13:30 BST / 08:30 EDT
Gasoline prices have risen for six months in a row, including a 16% increase in June, which may give a sharp boost to headline PPI. Prices are now rising for a wide range of other energy goods including diesel, heating oil and fuel oil. Assuming an 8% increase for finished energy goods and a small drop for finished foods prices, analysts think headline PPI may rise 1.4% on the month (almost double the consensus expectation). The year-on-year rate of change could climb to -4.7% from -5.0%. However, the underlying trend in core PPI has been quite subdued for the past three months. The core PPI ex-autos fell 0.1% in both April and May and has been essentially flat since January. Analysts look for the core PPI to rise 0.1% in June, with the year-on-year rate slowing to 2.9% from 3.0%.
US Retail sales (Jun) 13:30 BST / 08:30 EDT
Unit auto sales in June fell to 9.7mn from 9.9mn in May but are still up from 9.3mn in April. Analysts expect auto retail sales to hold about steady in this report, still down about 5% since January (due possibly to price discounting) even though unit sales have held steady overall. Higher gasoline prices should give a big boost to both total retail sales and ex-autos sales, which analysts see rising 0.5% and 0.6% respectively. But again this gain is likely to be solely due to gasoline, as analysts expect gas station sales rising 6%. Ex-autos and gasoline sales should look much softer at around 0.1%, as apparel and department stores are still relying on aggressive discounting to maintain demand.
US IBD/TIPP economic optimism (Jul) 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT
Recent consumer confidence readings have started to disappoint, including a 6pt drop in June’s Conference Board survey and a downward trend in the weekly ABC News consumer comfort readings since mid-May. Analysts look for July’s IBD/TIPP index to fall to 48 from 50.8, including a 4pt decline in the personal finances component, as gasoline prices have continued to climb higher.
US Business inventories (May) 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT
Manufacturing inventories fell 0.6%, and wholesale inventories fell 0.8% in May. Assuming a 0.8% decline in retail inventories, analysts expect total business inventories to drop by 0.7%.