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21/1/09

FTSE 100

4091.4, -17.07

Dow

7949.09, -332.13

FTSE 250

6142.06, -73.43

Nasdaq

1440.86, -88.47

FTSE All Share

2050.76, -10.39

S&P 500

805.22, -44.9

Nikkei

7901.64, -164.15

Hang Seng

12583.63, -376.14

Oil (Crude)

$38.74

Gold

$855.20

Base Rate

1.5%

10 Yr Gilt

3.4%

£/$

1.376

Euro/Gbp

0.938


Markets
US stocks plunged yesterday as Barack Obama was taking office as the new US President. There was little new information in the inauguration speech as to how the new administration would address the faltering economy, disappointing investors. Dire news from the banking sector continued, this time from the world's largest institutional money manager, State Street Corporation.

The Dow Jones tumbled 332.13 points to close at 7,949.09, the S&P 500 dropped 44.9 points to end at 805.22. The Nasdaq slid 88.47 points to finish at 1,440.86.

State Street, which has been considered one of the safest bets in the banking sector warned yesterday that fourth quarter earnings slumped 71%. Furthermore, it also said it has a $6.3 billion unrealised loss in its investment portfolio. Shares plummeted 59% as a result while a number of other large bank shares fell in sympathy, including Bank of America, off 29%, Citigroup, down 20% and JPMorgan Chase which ended 20.7% lower. In contrast, after the closing bell Citigroup climbed 3% after declaring a 1 cent dividend and announcing that it had completed the sale of Citigroup Technology Services Ltd (India) for $127 million.

IBM fell 3.5% in normal trade ahead of its quarterly results which were expected after the close. When they reported their results investors were pleased, with earnings that rose from a year ago, topping estimates - sending shares 4.5% higher. In normal hours, both Microsoft and Apple had fallen ahead of quarterly results expected later in the week. Microsoft lost 6.2% while Apple shed 4%. Intel declined 6.4% after cutting the price of some of its processors by 48%.

US light crude oil for February delivery gained $2.23 to $38.74 a barrel. COMEX gold for February delivery added $15.30 to $855.20 an ounce. Treasury prices slumped, raising the yield on the 10 year note to 2.37% from 2.2%.

The Nikkei dropped 164.15 points to close at 7,901.64 this morning as investors worried that a prolonged economic slump will erode capital at banks and cash flows at manufacturers. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Japan's third largest listed bank, dropped 5.4% as speculation global banks need to bolster capital sent US financial shares to an almost 14 year low.

The Hang Seng fell 376.14 points to close at 12,583.63 as the earnings outlook for manufacturing companies weakened. Angang Steel, China's second biggest maker of the alloy, lost more than 7% after saying profit dropped by half last year.

The FTSE 100 is currently 40.16 points lower 4,051.24. Banks top the fallers and risers board, Barclays leads the fallers, down 25% and Lloyds loses 17%. Royal Bank of Scotland tops the risers, up 6.8%, as the Treasury Committee urged the government to nationalise the bank, which it already owns 70% of. 


Economics
UK Bank of England minutes (Jan) 09.30 gmt

The Bank of England cut rates by 50bp to a record low of 1.5 percent at this meeting but it was less than expected by the market. Based on the statement released with the announcement, it is suspected that the weakness of sterling played a role in the less aggressive move. It made no explicit mention of quantitive easing, but this will likely feature in the minutes, which are expected to send a clear signal that further easing will follow. HSBC maintain their forecast that the Bank rate will fall to 0.25 percent by end Q1 and their view is that rates will be cut 75bp in February.

UK Unemployment (Dec/Nov) 09.30 gmt

The survey data on unemployment paints a particularly bleak picture. The latest employment intentions in the BoE's Agents Scores survey are the lowest since the series began in July 1997. Similarly, for the manufacturing and services PMIs, since 1992 and 1996, respectively. HSBC forecasts employment on the ILO measure to average 7.7 percent in 2009.

UK Average earnings (Nov) 09.30 gmt

With unemployment rising and margins under pressure wage growth is expected to ease over the coming year. If nominal wages prices resilient, this should stem the deflationary pressure that the markets currently fear.

UK Public finances (Dec) 09.30 gmt

In the Pre-Budget Report, the chancellor presented extraordinary large borrowing plans for the coming years. Signs that borrowing will exceed these estimates might trouble markets.

US NAHB housing market index (Jan) 18.00 gmt

 NAHB homebuilder optimism was unchanged, at 9, in December - its lowest point since 1985. The December survey also showed record lows for each of the component series; present sales (8), future sales (16), and prospective buyer traffic (7). Homebuilder stocks have rebounded from their lows in late November but remain down over the past three months. The January NAHB index is expected to rise to 11, continuing to reflect a bleak outlook.  
The details published in this e-mail are intended for information only and should not be construed as advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Aventus Capital Management will not accept responsibility for any actions taken (or not taken) on the basis of information published in this e-mail. 

Aventus Capital Management is a trading name of Rickerbys LLP (OC328675) registered in England and Wales, registered office Ellenborough House, Wellington Street, Cheltenham GL50 1YD. A list of the Members of Rickerbys LLP will be provided on request or can be inspected at this address. Aventus is a trade mark and the “A” logo is a registered trade mark of Rickerbys LLP. Rickerbys LLP is regulated by the Solicitors Regulation Authority. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. 

 

 


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