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23/7/08

FTSE 100 5364.1, -40.2 Dow 11602.5, +135.2
FTSE 250 8982.60, -62.89 Nasdaq 2303.96, +24.43
FTSE All Share 2732.73, -19.65 S&P 500 1277, +17
Nikkei 13312.93, +127.97 Hang Seng 22997.76, +470.28 
Oil (Crude) $127.95 Gold $948.50
Base Rate 5% 10 Yr Gilt 5.048%
£/$ 1.992 Euro/Gbp 0.7917

Markets

All three major indices in the US gained more than 1% yesterday after another drop in oil prices overshadowed some poor quarterly financial reports. Stocks started the day in negative territory following disappointing results from a number of companies. But by mid morning stocks had rebounded as oil tumbled more than $5 as a perceived decline in US demand again took hold. Adding further support were comments by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson urging Congress to back a plan to support troubled mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser, said the Fed may need to raise rates sooner rather than later to fend off inflation - a move seen as a boon to the dollar and stocks.

The Dow Jones rose 135.2 points to close at 11,602.5, the S&P 500 climbed 17 points to end at 1,277. The Nasdaq gained 24.43 points to finish at 2,303.96.

Wachovia reported second quarter figures that fell short of analysts expectations. The company suffered a loss of nearly $9 billion due to losses on home mortgages and the bank's declining market value. It also stated that it would slash this year's dividend. However, after initially dropping more than 10% the bank stated that it would not be selling new shares to raise capital, which cheered investors while some analysts said the bank's weakened condition could make it an attractive takeover candidate. Shares rallied after this and finished 27% higher for the day.

After the bell, Washington Mutual released figures that also missed expectations. The largest US savings and loan company reported a $3.3 billion quarterly loss. However, shares had already gained 6% in normal trade and managed a further 9% rise in after hours trading.

Airline stocks rallied following the drop in oil prices. US Airways had already announced quarterly figures that included a smaller loss than had previously been expected. The No. 6 US carrier rallied 59% higher as a result. United Airlines parent UAL reported a net loss of $2.7 billion for the second quarter, citing large severance costs incurred by layoffs. The company announced thousands of new job cuts as well, but this buoyed investors, sending shares almost 59% higher.

UPS reported a 21% drop in profit in the current quarter, despite a 6.7% rise in sales. The company also lowered its outlook for the year, but due to dropping oil prices, shares managed a 4% gain.

US light crude oil for August delivery ended the day $3.09 lower at $127.95 a barrel. Starting today the September contract will be actively traded.

COMEX gold for August delivery slipped $15.20 to $948.50 an ounce.

Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the 10 year note to 4.1% from 4.03%.

The Nikkei advanced 127.97 points to close at 13,312.93 this morning. Mitsubishi Estate Co and Mitsui Fudosan Co sent real estate shares to their biggest gain in three months after JPMorgan Chase & Co rated the developers "overweight".

The Hang Seng is currently 470.28 points higher at 22,997.76. As with other markets around the world, the drop in oil lifts a whole raft of stocks. Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd, Hong Kong's No. 1 airline, heads for its highest close in a month.

Mobile phone giant Vodafone weighed the London market down into the red yesterday after shaking investors with disappointing revenue forecasts. The heavyweight stock fell almost 14% during a sell off, knocking around 45 points off the FTSE 100 Index. It was responsible for dragging the Footsie back down into bear market territory, with the index closing down 40.2 points at 5364.1.

Vodafone blamed a tougher economic environment and lower than expected sales of equipment such as handsets and USB data cards for revenues coming in at the bottom end of expectations. The group's shares ended 20.25p down at 129p, and were the leading Footsie faller.

Further hefty falls in the crude oil prices - down more than $4 to $126 a barrel - helped boost afternoon trading. Cruise ship operator Carnival rose 83p to 1808p, with British Airways 7.25p ahead at 246.25p.

Meanwhile a trading update from Enterprise Inns also unsettled the market, with a number of brewing and pub chains down as a result. Enterprise, which has around 7,500 tenanted pubs, suffered a 14% share price fall after it said weaker beer volumes and increased levels of assistance to licensees had put profits under pressure. Shares were 46.25p cheaper at 299.5p.

In the second tier, Punch Taverns fell 25.25p to 240p - a fall of more than 10% - while Mitchells & Butlers declined 10.25p to 240p. House builders were also big fallers in the FTSE 250 Index, with Bovis Homes down 56.75p at 383.25p, Persimmon off 21.25p at 326.25p and Taylor Wimpey 4.75p lower at 43.75p. The declines put paid to the mini-recovery seen in the sector since the middle of last week.

Back in the top flight, Severn Trent shares rose nearly 4%, or 51p to 1398p, after it said trading remained in line with expectations, despite a drop in consumption among meter customers. In the banking sector, Royal Bank of Scotland shares were down 4p at 199p after National Australia Bank said it was no longer interested in buying the company's ABN Amro assets in Australia and New Zealand. Elsewhere Barclays was 9.25p lower at 314.75p, while Lloyds TSB lost 5.75p to 320p. But there were some signs of life in the financial sector, after buy-to-let lender Paragon said it had received takeover interest. The stock jumped 31% or 26p to 110p amid reports that private equity group Blackstone was behind one of the approaches.

Economics
UK Bank of England minutes (Jul) 09.30 bst

The recent communication from the Bank of England has been entirely consistent, and these minutes are unlikely to prove an exception. The Committee will highlight that inflation is set to rise sharply in the coming months. Beyond this, they need to weigh up the risk that growth slows so sharply that inflation undershoots the target in the medium term, against the prospect that inflation expectations become de-anchored and inflation proves more persistent.

There is a chance these minutes are surprisingly hawkish for three reasons. First at the time of the meeting, oil prices were still near a record high. Second, the meeting also occurred before the resurgence in credit market concerns triggered by the problems with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Third, the Committee will have had an advance release of the surprisingly high CPI release for June. It seems very likely that they discussed the prospect of a rate hike. But the vote is likely to be eight members in favour of rates unchanged, with the exception of Blanchflower, who will have voted for a 25bps cut.

US Fed Beige Book (Jul) 19.00 bst

This Beige Book (including information up to 14 July) to be slightly stronger in tone than the previous report. We know that auto sales fell heavily in June, but discounters have noted the impact of stimulus payments in boosting sales for the past two months. Still, retailers may express less optimism regarding future sales, as the impact from rebates fades and gasoline prices continue to sting. In the 23-24 June FOMC minutes, Dallas Fed president Fisher expressed concern that business operators were planning to pass through higher input costs to final goods prices. The previous Beige Book also noted some upward pressures on selling prices, and we will look for any indication that these factors are becoming more pervasive.

The details published in this e-mail are intended for information only and should not be construed as advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Aventus Capital Management will not accept responsibility for any actions taken (or not taken) on the basis of information published in this e-mail. 

Aventus Capital Management is a trading name of Rickerbys LLP (OC328675) registered in England and Wales, registered office Ellenborough House, Wellington Street, Cheltenham GL50 1YD. A list of the Members of Rickerbys LLP will be provided on request or can be inspected at this address. Aventus is a trade mark and the “A” logo is a registered trade mark of Rickerbys LLP. Rickerbys LLP is regulated by the Solicitors Regulation Authority. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. 

 

 


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