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26/9/08

FTSE 100 5197.02, +101.45 Dow 11022.06, +196.89
FTSE 250 8434.65, +27.29 Nasdaq 2186.57, +30.86
FTSE All Share 2636.31, +44.60 S&P 500 1209.18, +23.31
Nikkei 12006.53, -113.37 Hang Seng 18830.53, -103.9
Oil (Crude) $108.02 Gold $882
Base Rate 5% 10 Yr Gilt 4.576%
£/$ 1.834 Euro/Gbp 0.795

Markets
US stocks rallied on Thursday on news that lawmakers agreed on terms of the $700bn bank bailout plan, ending days of heated debate.

The DJIA closed 196.89 points higher at 11,022.1, after having been up as much as 304 points earlier in the session. The S&P500 gained 23.31 points higher at 1,209.18 and the Nasdaq added 30.86 points to close at 2,186.57.

Key Congressional leaders said Thursday afternoon they have come up with a bipartisan agreement in principle on a $700bn plan to let the Treasury buy bad mortgage assets from banks as a means of getting them to start lending again. The deal would include many of the provisions lawmakers had been pushing for over the last few days, including help for homeowners, a limit to executive pay packages for participating companies and oversight of Treasury actions. But late in the day, as President Bush held a White House meeting with Congressional leaders and the two major presidential candidates, there were indications that some Republicans on Capitol Hill had not signed on to the deal.

In economic news, new home sales fell to a 17 year low, weekly jobless claims hit a seven year high and durable goods orders showed a big drop.

In corporate news, GE warned that current quarter and full year earnings won't meet forecasts. But the stock rallied 6 percent.

US light crude for November delivery rose $2.29 to settle at $108.02 a barrel on NYMEX after tumbling in the morning. Oil prices had plummeted over $55 after peaking at $147.27 a barrel on July 11, as investors bet that sluggish global growth will diminish oil demand. But prices have soared in the last few weeks as the financial crisis has intensified and investors sought to put their money into hard assets. COMEX gold for December delivery fell $13 to $882 an ounce.

Treasury prices dipped, raising the yield on the 10 year note to 3.85 percent from 3.8 percent. The three month Treasury bill rose to 0.78 percent from 0.35 percent earlier in the session, suggesting investors were less risk averse than in recent days. In currency trading, the dollar gained against the euro and the yen.

The Nikkei dropped 113.37 points to close at 11,893.16 this morning. Lenders pared gains as the biggest bank failure in history coincided with the conflict over the passage of the $700 billion financial rescue package. It would appear that Washington Mutual, the US's largest savings and loan firm, was been seized by regulators late last night. Shipping lines also led stocks lower as cargo rates plunged.

The Hang Seng is currently 103.9 points lower at 18,830.53, again troubled by the faltering US rescue package. Shipping lines were also lower due to the tumbling cargo rates. Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd, Hong Kong's largest dry-bulk shipping line, sank 11%.

UK stocks closed 2 percent higher on Thursday, snapping a three day losing run, as financials rallied on hopes that a $700bn bailout package would be approved by Congress soon. The FTSE100 closed 101.5 points higher at 5197.0. Congress neared agreement on a massive Wall Street bailout plan with more protections for taxpayers, as new data added to concerns about the weak US economy and General Electric cut its earnings forecast. RBS, Lloyds, HSBC and Barclays were 1.8-7.1 percent higher.

Insurers were also higher, with some investors saying they are benefiting from difficulties faced by AIG, which was bailed out by emergency loan from the Federal Reserve. Additionally, AXA CE Henri de Catries told Europe 1 radio the current crisis offered the group opportunities to strengthen its market position. RSA Insurance gained 11.1 percent, Aviva added 9.9 percent, Old Mutual rose 12.6 percent and Admiral Group gained 5.5 percent. Man Group however, slumped 6.2 percent. The company is not on the UK regulators short selling ban list and a source close to the company said that Man Group had asked to be included in the list.

Energy stocks were also in demand, with BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Tullow Oil were up 1.7 to 3.2 percent. Vodafone rose 6 percent after falling 8.2 percent in the previous three sessions. Miners were weaker as metals prices eased. Rio Tinto, Xstrata and Eurasian Natural Resources fell between 1.3 and 6.3 percent.

Retailers were under pressure with uncertainty surrounding the financial sector hurting the wider economy and the credit crunch seen forcing consumers to curb their spending. Marks and Spencer was down 1.4 percent, also weighed by a price target cut from Morgan Stanley. Next fell 1.8 percent and Tesco eased 2.4 percent. Thomas Cook fell 4 percent after Arcandor said it may lower its stake in the company, raising stock overhang worries.

Economics
US GDP (Q2, final) 13.30 bst

The final reading of Q2 GDP is expected to be unrevised at 3.3 percent. The GDP deflator should remain at 1.2 percent.

US University of Michigan confidence (Sept, final) 15.00 bst

The preliminary September reading of Michigan sentiment rose by a substantial 10 points, up to 73.1, reflecting a positive boost from the decline in gasoline prices. Accordingly, 1 year median inflation expectations dropped sharply to 3.6 percent from 4.8 percent, while the 5 year median to 2.9 percent from 3.2 percent. The latest ABC/Washington Post reading rose to -41 from -47, but this may be catch up rather than a sign of further improvement. Given the recent financial turmoil and lower equity markets, consumer sentiment is expected to be revised lower to 70.

The details published in this e-mail are intended for information only and should not be construed as advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Aventus Capital Management will not accept responsibility for any actions taken (or not taken) on the basis of information published in this e-mail. 

Aventus Capital Management is a trading name of Rickerbys LLP (OC328675) registered in England and Wales, registered office Ellenborough House, Wellington Street, Cheltenham GL50 1YD. A list of the Members of Rickerbys LLP will be provided on request or can be inspected at this address. Aventus is a trade mark and the “A” logo is a registered trade mark of Rickerbys LLP. Rickerbys LLP is regulated by the Solicitors Regulation Authority. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. 

 

 


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