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29/5/08

FTSE 100 6069.6, +11.1 Dow 12594, +45.7
FTSE 250 10057.3, +23.1 Nasdaq 2486.7, +5.46
FTSE All Share 3089.84, +5.21 S&P 500 1390.85, +5.5
Nikkei 14124.47, +415.03 Hang Seng 24313.37, +63.86
Oil (Brent) $129.81 Gold $905
Base Rate 5% 10 Yr Gilt 5.004%
£/$ 1.973 Euro/Gbp 0.7911

Markets

US markets gained yesterday as investors were lifted by a government report that showed a smaller than expected decline in new orders for durable goods. The US Census Bureau said that new orders for durable goods fell 0.5%, against expectations of a 1.5% decline. Excluding transportation, orders rose 2.5 percent - the sharpest increase in nine months, while orders for electrical equipment and appliances jumped 27.8 percent, the largest-ever increase. However, rising oil prices in the afternoon renewed worries that high energy prices will hurt businesses and their customers, limiting stocks gains.

The Dow Jones climbed 45.7 points to close at 12,594, the S&P 500 added 5.5 points to end at 1,390.85. The Nasdaq rose 5.46 points to finish at 2,486.70.

Shares in technology companies were one of the main beneficiaries of the positive economic data. IBM was at the top of the Dow's risers board, up 1.7%, Hewlett-Packard was lifted 1.8% and Research in Motion advanced 2%. Companies that make expensive machinery also rose. Caterpillar finished 1.5% higher, while Deere's rose 3.4%.

Financial shares suffered following Citigroup's decision to cut the price target of insurer AIG from $47 to $41. Citi said the company may need to raise more capital, having just closed a $20 billion capital raising last week. Shares in AIG dropped 4.7% as a result. Regional bank, KeyCorp, tumbled 10.4% after warning that the amount of loans to be written off as not having been repaid will be higher than previously anticipated.

US light crude oil for July delivery climbed $2.18 to $131.03 a barrel. COMEX gold for August delivery slipped $7.80 to $905 an ounce.

Treasury prices sank, raising the yield on the 10 year note to 4% from 3.92% late Monday.

The Nikkei rallied 415.03 points to close at 14,124.47 this morning. Stocks jumped the most in almost two months after orders for durable goods in the US unexpectedly rose in April, easing concern an economic slowdown will subdue spending in Japan's biggest export market. Sony Corp, which gets a quarter of its sales from the US, sent electronics makers higher, while Canon Inc jumped the most in a month.

The Hang Seng is currently 63.86 points higher at 24,313.37, also benefiting from the positive economic data from the US. China Mobile Ltd, the No 1 wireless operators by users, advanced for the first time in six days on speculation recent losses were excessive.

The London market managed to keep its head above water yesterday as oil prices coloured the session's trading. With oil hovering at around $129 a barrel - compared to last week's peak above $135 - the likes of British Airways and cruise ship firm Carnival were among the FTSE 100 Index's winners. But the dip saw oil majors like BP and Cairn Energy lose ground, although the Footsie clung on to an 11.1 point gain to 6069.6 thanks partly to a rush for insurers.

BA was among the notable gainers, firming almost 2%, or 3.5p at 218.25p, as investors cheered prospects of potential relief from mounting fuel bills for the airline. FTSE 250 counterpart Easyjet also benefited, nearly topping the second tier risers' board with a 6% hike, up 17.25p at 291.75p. Back in the top flight Carnival was among the best performers, 52p better off at 1894p. But oil giant BP was down 11p at 605.5p, and in a poor session for the prospectors, Tullow Oil fell 12.5p to 897.5p and Cairn Energy slipped 56p to 3315p.

Insurers were among the chief beneficiaries as traders moved their money out of the oil and gas sector. Admiral was the leading Footsie riser, up more than 4%, or 35p to 884.5p, with further strong showings from RSA Insurance and Aviva, which gained 2.9p to 134.8p and 12.5p to 620p respectively.

Blue-chip supermarkets also fared well after an upgrade for Morrisons from Credit Suisse. Morrisons rose 5.75p to 291p and Sainsbury's added 10.5p to 352p.

Elsewhere, house builders and property companies - which suffered during a selling blitz on Tuesday - were in better shape. Persimmon was up 4.5p at 513.5p, while property developer Hammerson clawed back some losses to stand 23p ahead at 924p.

On the fallers board, Marks & Spencer and Next saw steep declines after both stocks became ex-dividend - meaning new investors no longer have the right to receive upcoming dividends. M&S was down 14.75p to 381p, while Next lost 17p to 1168p. Banks were also on the back foot in the wake of a flurry of downgrades from Credit Suisse. Lloyds TSB was a notable casualty, down 8.75p at 384.75p, with Royal Bank of Scotland losing 3.25p to 238p. Up-for-sale nuclear power generator British Energy was another company in the red after reporting a sharp fall in annual earnings. Shares were down 12p to 725p.

Elsewhere telecoms group Thus soared 28.5p or 26% to 138.5p after giant Cable & Wireless revealed it had made a preliminary takeover approach for the company.

Economics
UK CBI Distributive Trades (May) 1100 BST

The retail sector will likely absorb most of the cost of higher oil prices as real discretionary spending power is eroded. However, the slight improvement in the weather in May may offset this factor, leaving the overall index unchanged.

US Initial Jobless Claims (Week 24 May) 1330 BST/0830 EDT

Last week's initial claims were 365,000, while the 4 week average moved higher to 372,250. Analysts look for 370,000 this week. Continuing claims are still on an upward trajectory, and we look for an increase up to 3.09mn.

US GDP (Q1, prelim) 1330 BST/0830 EDT

Q1 GDP should be revised up to 1.1%, from the advance estimate of 0.6%. Mostly this reflects a bigger contribution from net exports, as the March trade data showed a 5.4% drop in real goods imports. Net exports should now add about 0.7ppt to GDP, versus 0.2ppt in the initial report. The GDP deflator may remain at 2.6%.

The details published in this e-mail are intended for information only and should not be construed as advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Aventus Capital Management will not accept responsibility for any actions taken (or not taken) on the basis of information published in this e-mail. 

Aventus Capital Management is a trading name of Rickerbys LLP (OC328675) registered in England and Wales, registered office Ellenborough House, Wellington Street, Cheltenham GL50 1YD. A list of the Members of Rickerbys LLP will be provided on request or can be inspected at this address. Aventus is a trade mark and the “A” logo is a registered trade mark of Rickerbys LLP. Rickerbys LLP is regulated by the Solicitors Regulation Authority. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. 


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