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07/05/09

FTSE 100

4396.49, +59.55

Dow

8512.28, +101.63

FTSE 250

7871.20, +34.37

Nasdaq

1759.10, +4.98

FTSE All Share

2254.16, +27.56

S&P 500

919.53, +15.73

Nikkei

9385.70, +408.33

Hang Seng

17145.65, +311.08

Oil (Crude)

$56.34

Gold

$911.50

Base Rate

0.5%

10 Yr Gilt

3.64%

£/$

1.5091

Euro/Gbp

0.8787


Markets
Stocks surged on Wednesday with financial issues leading the way, after reports about the government's stress tests suggested that the major banks are better capitalized than some had thought. Also helping, jobs report that suggested the pace of the slowdown is easing.

The DJIA gained 101.63 points to close 8512.28, the S&P500 added 15.73 points to close at 919.53 and the Nasdaq added 4.98 points to close at 1759.10.

Banks stocks led the advance even on reports that companies such as Bank of America and Citigroup will need to raise billions more to meet the requirements of the regulators conducting so called stress tests.

After the close, Cisco Systems reported quarterly sales and earnings that fell from a year ago but still topped estimates.

Investors were sorting through published reports on the health of the nation’s banking system ahead of the government's official release of the stress test results today. The government is testing to see that the 19 biggest banks have enough money on hand to withstand a potential bigger downturn in the economy. More than half the banks may have to raise additional capital. Bank of America may need to raise an additional $34bn in order to meet the regulators standard. Wells Fargo may need around $15bn. Citigroup may need at least another $10bn. JPMorgan Chase, American Express and Bank of New York Mellon won't need any additional capital according to the reports. All the bank stocks mentioned rallied, along with regional banks. Fifth Third Bancorp added 15.5 percent and was on the Nasdaq's big gainers.

In economic news, a pair of reports released before the open showed that the pace of unemployment is starting to slow. Employers in the private sector pared 491,000 jobs from their payrolls in April, after cutting 708,000 jobs in March. Economists surveyed expected a decline of 645,000. The number of job cuts announced in April decreased for the third month in a row. US employers announced 132,590 cuts in April, the lowest number since October, still 47 percent more than in the same month a year ago. The reports raised bets that Friday’s bigger non farm payrolls report from the government will show a slower pace of job losses too. Employers are expected to have cut 620,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting 663,000 in March. The unemployment rate is expected to have risen to 8.9 percent from 8.5 percent in March.

General Motors fell ahead of its quarterly report, due out today. The company is expected to post a steep quarterly loss.

Ford Motor said its restructuring is on track and that it has enough money to fund its plan. The company also said it will spend $550m to convert a plant that produced trucks and SUVs into a complex for making fuel efficient and battery powered cars.

Walt Disney issued quarterly results. The company reported weaker earnings that topped estimates on weaker revenue that missed estimates. The shares jumped nearly 12 percent.

Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the 10 year note to 3.13 percent from 3.15 percent.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the yen.  

US Light crude for June delivery rose $2.50 to settle at $56.34 a barrel on NYMEX.

COMEX gold for June delivery rose $7.20 to settle at $911.50 an ounce.

The Nikkei closed at a 6 month closing higher today, on the back of soaring bank shares as investor worries about the US financial system eased. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group surged more than 15 percent and Mizuho Financial Group jumped 12.1 percent, buoyed as well by a brokerage upgrade, while other financial also climbed. A good part of the Nikkei's gains were due to it playing catch up to the rest of Asia after being closed for three days of holidays earlier this week. The Nikkei closed 408.33 points higher at 9385.70, its highest close since November 5, while the TOPIX rose 4.6 percent to 885.93.

Shares of Nintendo fell 0.1 percent after the company forecast a 12 percent profit decline this year, short of market expectations, as it expects a drop in sales of its DS portable player.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial soared 15.8 percent to Y617, even after the bank warned on Friday that it now expects to have slid to its first annual net loss since it was formed in 2005, hit by losses on its stockholdings.

Mizuho Financial Group added 12.1 percent to Y232, gaining additional upward momentum after JPMorgan raised its rating on the company to neutral from underweight, citing financial countermeasures in Japan's additional economic package and improving psychological factors.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group jumped 12.3 percent to Y3920. The bank said it would buy Citigroup's Japanese broker and key investment banking units for $5.9bn and look to form a financial services powerhouse, though an alliance with Daiwa Securities Group.

Hitachi rose 7.3 percent to Y370 after the company said it would report a bigger than expected net losses for the financial year on tax costs, but it more than tripled its operating profit estimate on solid sales of power and industrial systems.

But Tokyo Electron fell 3 percent to Y4540 after the Nikkei business daily said the shipmaking equipment producer may have an operating loss of about Y65bn this business year, a sharp reversal from a profit estimates for the year ended in March.

UK stocks closed higher on Wednesday to hit their highest closing level in nearly four months, led by banks and commodity stocks and buoyed by slower job losses in the United States. The FTSE 100 closed 59.55 points higher at 4,396.49, after trading as high as 4,437.61 earlier in the session. Better than expected consumer confidence and service sector data in the UK kept investor sentiment positive, shrugging off concerns that Bank of America needs $34bn of capital to withstand a deep economic downturn. Citigroup may need as much as $10 billion, a person familiar with the matter said, following the U.S. bank stress tests.

Standard Chartered soared 9.2 percent, supported by a rating upgrade from Exane BNP Paribas and continuing positive sentiment after it posted record first quarter profits the previous session. HSBC rose 4.2 percent. But Barclays shed 3.4 percent and RBS fell 4.8 percent after UBS cut both lenders to sell. Lloyds dropped 6.5 percent.

Miners were other standout gainers, tracking firmer metal prices. Xstrata, Eurasian Natural Resources, Kazakhmys and Anglo American took on 2 to 4 percent. Antofagasta, however, fell after going ex-dividend.

BP added 1.5 percent and BG Group added 0.5 percent, while Tullow Oil gained 4.2 percent after saying it had made another oil find in Uganda. Royal Dutch Shell fell after trading ex dividend.

Cobham fell 5.1 percent despite saying first quarter trading was in line with company expectations.

Man Group dropped 5.6 percent after Jeffries downgraded the hedge fund group to hold from buy.

Admiral Group, Bunzl, Kingfisher, Whitbread, Morrison Supermarkets and Drax also fell after trading ex dividend.

Economics
UK Bank of England rate announcement (May) 12.00 bst

In the run up to this meeting the MPC has been through the quarterly forecasting process. Its new projections for growth and inflation will be available in the Inflation Report on Wednesday 13 May. This process not only allows the MPC to step back and consider the progress made over the quarter but also to communicate its strategy more clearly.

For this reason the MPC are likely to announce the future plans for their Asset purchases despite the fact that they still haven’t finished spending the £75bn that they announced in March. It has pre-authorisation from the Treasury to extend to GBP150bn should the BoE deem this necessary to meet its inflation target.

Early signs on the effectiveness of quantitive easing are relatively encouraging. Longer term bond yields may have risen but are still remarkably low when you consider the bad news on gilt issuance that emerged from the Budget. Inflation expectations have risen, confidence has stabilised, credit conditions appear to be easing slowly and asset markets look healthier.

As such, the BoE may not feel the need to increase the Asset Purchase Programme. HSBC stress that because many household and corporate loans in the UK are anchored to short term interest rates, a rise in longer term rates would have less impact on the real economy. There is a significant risk that the BoE will not increase the programme at all, however confidence about a recovery is tentative and the bank may feel it is too early to remove this stimulus measure entirely, given the amount of new issuance still arriving in the coming months. It is thought the Bank of England may extend the programme to GBP100bn (increasing the current facility by GBP 25bn), and aim to complete it by end September. This will buy it some time to ensure that the recovery is sufficiently embedded.

US Nonfarm productivity (Q1, prelim) 13.30 bst

Q1 nonfarm business productivity is expected to rise 0.3 percent, with the year on year rate slowing to 1.7 percent from 2.2 percent. We know that nonfarm business output fell 8.2 percent according to the Q1 GDP report. As a bad case, HSBC assume that hours worked fell 8.5 percent, matching the decline in payroll hours. Assuming a 2.8 percent in compensation per hour, unit labour costs to rise 2.5 percent. With the year on year rate rising to 2.2 percent from 1.8 percent.

US Initial jobless claims (week 2 May) 13.30 bst

Last week's jobless claims fell to 631,000 from 645,000 and the four week average fell to 637,250. Initial claims are expected to be 630,000 this week. Continuing claims for the prior week could climb to 6.35m, up from 6.27m.

US Consumer credit (Mar) 20.00 bst

Consumer credit has declined in five out of the last seven months. A decline of USD4bn in March is expected. Ex-autos retail sales fell 0.9 percent and revolving credit card debt could fall USD2bn.




The details published in this e-mail are intended for information only and should not be construed as advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Aventus Capital Management will not accept responsibility for any actions taken (or not taken) on the basis of information published in this e-mail. 

Aventus Capital Management is a trading name of Rickerbys LLP (OC328675) registered in England and Wales, registered office Ellenborough House, Wellington Street, Cheltenham GL50 1YD. A list of the Members of Rickerbys LLP will be provided on request or can be inspected at this address. Aventus is a trade mark and the “A” logo is a registered trade mark of Rickerbys LLP. Rickerbys LLP is regulated by the Solicitors Regulation Authority. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. 
 

 

 


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