welcome to Aventus

 

7/12/07

  
FTSE 100 6485.6, -8.2 Dow 13619.9, +174.9
FTSE 250 10495.8, -15.7 Nasdaq 2709.03, +42.67
FTSE All Share 3291.65, -4.38 S&P 500 1507.35, +22.35
Nikkei 15956.4, +82.3 Hang Seng 29558.9, +213.5
Oil (Brent) $90.32 Gold $797.79
Base Rate 5.5% 10 Yr Gilt 4.63%
£/$ 2.0236 Euro/Gbp 0.7221


Markets
US stocks rallied Thursday afternoon, gaining for the second session in a row, as investors welcomed the White House's plan to help troubled homeowners and geared up for today's jobs report and next week's Fed policy meeting. The DJIA added 174.9 points to close at 13619.9, the S&P500 added 22.35 points to 1507.35 and the Nasdaq climbed 42.67 points to finish at 2709.03.

Stocks drifted higher during the session, but gains were limited as investors sorted through mixed retail news, including a warnings from Target, and a report showing a big jump in the pace of foreclosures filed during the third quarter. However, the advance found its second wind in the last hour of trade, as investors digested the Bush Administration proposal to help out subprime lenders. The plan freezes the borrowing rate on certain subprime mortgages for five years and was negotiated between the Treasury Department, mortgage lenders and banks. Countrywide gained nearly 14 percent following the expected announcement. A variety of homebuilders bounced too, including DR Horton and Centex. The homebuilder sector also got a lift from Toll Brothers, which reported quarterly results. The company reported its first ever quarterly loss. However, the loss was narrower than what analysts were expecting.

Also helping stocks higher were strong November sales results from many of the nation's discount retailers, although speciality clothing chains struggled, making for a mixed start to the critical holiday retail sales period.

Wal-Mart reported sales at the high end of its guidance. Costco saw strong gains as well. Macy's and Nordstrom reported strong November sales, but warned that December sales will fall.

Target reported November sales and a December forecast that disappointed analysts, prompting a downgrade from Wachovia Capital Markets.

Intel rose more than 2 percent on an analyst note than said demand for notebook computer components appears "a bit stronger" than expected. Other tech stocks like Apple and Dell Inc gained as the Nasdaq rose.

In economic news, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell last week by more than expected. However, the report was overshadowed a bit ahead of today's all important jobs report.

Treasury prices fell boosting the yield on the 10 year note to 4.01 percent from 3.94 percent.

US light crude for January delivery rose $2.74 to settle at $90.23 a barrel on NYMEX.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the yen and fell versus the euro.

COMEX gold for February delivery rose $3.40 to settle at $807.10 an ounce.

Japanese stocks hit a fresh one month closing high today, propelled by a weaker yen and buying of exporters such as Toyota Motor amid an easing of fears about the health of the US economy. Steel firms, construction and real estate also did well, among the majority of sectors rising on short covering by day trades, who provided most of Tokyo's market activity.

Additional support in the early part of the day came from rises in other Asian stocks, particularly in Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng index opened more than 1 percent higher.

A late wave of profit taking sales ate away much of the Nikkei's gains for the day, though it still finished up 82.3 points at 15956.4, its highest close since Nov 7. Earlier it rose as high as 16107.65, a gain of more than 200 points.

Toyota closed up 1.6 percent at Y6340, with other car makers not far behind. Honda Motor added 1.3 percent to Y3870 and Nissan Motor gained 1.1 percent to Y1263. Steel companies were late gainers, though market participants said all resource linked stocks, such as trading houses, were doing well. JFE Holdings jumped 4.5 percent to Y5850 and Nippon Steel Corp rose 2.6 percent to Y666.

Shares of homebuilders rose after the Nikkei business daily said the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's tax panel decided on Thursday to extend all housing related tax breaks to expire and to introduce new measures to support the ailing housing market. Sekisui House gained 3.5 percent to Y1340 while Daiwa House Industry jumped 6.5 percent to Y1597. The panel has decided to extend by another two years a measure that halves the fixed assets tax on new homes for three years after purchase, the Nikkei said. The measure is due to expire on March 31 2008.

Suzuki Motor Corp said after the close that it would invest 9.5bn baht to build a small car factory in Thailand that will start production in 2010.

UK stocks eased on Thursday and pared the previous days gains, as nagging uncertainty persisted over the outlook for costs after the Bank of England flagged inflation as it cut interest rates. Housebuilders Persimmon and Barratt Developments figured among the main losers but banks took pole position among gainers, with RBS up 2.7 percent after it beat profit forecasts and unveiled a smaller than expected $2.5bn writedown. The FTSE100 closed 0.1 percent lower at 6485.6.

The Bank of England cut interest rates by 1/4 point, its first cut in more than two years, in order to shore up the economy in the face of a global credit crunch after a week of feverish speculation over that it would do. The Bank of England's reduction to 5.5 percent reversed July's hike but some questioned whether a cut was appropriate now given rising pressures. In Frankfurt, the ECB left rates on hold.

Among gainers, HSBC, HBOS and Standard Chartered all rose between 0.7 and 1.7 percent.

Rio Tinto fell 2.4 percent and BHP Billiton shed 1.7 percent after Chinese steelmaker Baosteel said it was not interested in spoiling BHP Billiton's so far unsuccessful bid for its rival.

Energy stocks were mixed, with Royal Dutch Shell falling 0.4 percent and BP adding 0.2 percent while US crude oil prices edged up, recovered from six week lows.

Economics
US Non farm payrolls (Nov) 13.30gmt

Non farm payrolls are seen rising by 100,000. Initial jobless claims have trended higher over the past two months, but the four week average is still fairly low at 335,250. Employment signals from the latest consumer confidence survey were neutral as the Jobs Plentiful Index fell to 23.2 from 24.1. but the Jobs Hard to Get Index Index declined to 21.3 from 22.8. Losses may mount in construction and manufacturing and the trend has also turned negative for the credit intermediation and retail trades.

On the positive side, there continues to be steady growth in healthcare, food services, and government, while employment services employment showed a pick up in October. The unemployment rate could rise to 4.8 percent from 4.7 percent. Look for a 0.3 percent rise in average hourly earnings, keeping the year on year rate at 3.8 percent.

US University of Michigan confidence (Dec, prelim) 15.00 gmt

Michigan sentiment fell 4.8 points to 76.1 in November, although an upward revision in latter part of the month (preliminary estimate was 75), suggests some stabilisation. One year median inflation expectations rose to 3.4 percent from 3.1 percent, while five year inflation expectations rose to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent. However, the ABC/Washington Post survey has continued top drop, falling to -21 (from -19) in the last week of November. Michigan sentiment is seen falling to 75.

US Consumer credit (Oct) 20.00gmt

Consumer credit rose by USD3.8bn in September. This was the smallest increase in five months, but the trend of rising consumer debt levels remains intact. An increase of USD5bn in October is expected.

The details published in this e-mail are intended for information only and should not be construed as advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Aventus Capital Management will not accept responsibility for any actions taken (or not taken) on the basis of information published in this e-mail.

Aventus Capital Management is a trading style, "Aventus" is a trade mark and the Aventus logo is a registered trade mark of Rickerbys Solicitors. Rickerbys is regulated by the Solicitors Regulation Authority. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
  

 


What's going on