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8/7/08

 
FTSE 100 5512.7, +99.9 Dow 11231.96, -56.58
FTSE 250 8623, +107 Nasdaq 2243.32, -2.06
FTSE All Share 2782.72, +46.66 S&P 500 1252.31, -10.59
Nikkei 13033.10, -326.94 Hang Seng 21172.05, -741.01
Oil (Crude) $141.06 Gold $931.60
Base Rate 5% 10 Yr Gilt 4.89%
£/$ 1.9765 Euro/Gbp 0.7960


Markets

US stocks slipped on Monday with the Dow ending just above the bear market levels that the Nasdaq and S&P already sit in, as investors abandoned a late day recovery attempt amid more financial market woes. The DJIA closed 56.58 points lower at 11231.96, the S&P500 fell 10.59 points to close at 1252.31 and the Nasdaq closed 2.06 points lower at 2243.32.

Stocks ended a choppy session lower as investors failed to shake off revived worries about the outlook for financial companies at the start of the earnings reporting period. Lehman Brothers said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may need to raise a combined $75bn in capital if new accounting rules go through. That revived fears about the depth of the credit market crisis ahead of the first wave of second quarter earnings reports. Freddie Mac lost almost 18 percent, Fannie Mae fell over 16 percent and a variety of big bank stocks including Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase declined as well.

Cautious comments from San Fransisco Fed Bank president Janet Yellen kept worries about the weak economy in focus. Stocks staged a late comeback after the three major gauges hit bear market levels, a decline of 20 percent off the recent highs. But that proved unsustainable with stocks falling again into the close. Janet Yellen warned that the downturn in the housing market and the credit crisis plaguing Wall Street would worsen before the economy recovers. In a speech in San Diego she said "The balance sheet pressures, and broader financial market dislocations, are likely to be with us for some time". She added that she expects the market to improve next year, "but things could get worse before they get better", she said.

The selloff in oil prices did little to relieve worries about consumer spending and rising inflation. Instead, the lower oil prices caused oil services stocks including Exxon Mobil and Chevron to fall, dragging on the broader market.

Crude for August delivery fell more than $5 to below $140 a barrel on NYMEX. The oil market is responding to reports out over the weekend that Iranian officials have agreed to renew talks with the EU over Iran's nuclear program and the enrichment of uranium.

In company news, The Wall Street Journal reported that General Motors may be gearing up for massive layoffs and selling more of its brands amid a deepening slump in auto sales. The stocks fell after rallying early in the session.

NBC Universal and two private equity firms said Sunday they have reached a deal to buy The Weather Channel from Landmark Communications Inc. Shares of General Electric, the parent company of NBC Universal rose 0.7 percent.

Merck slipped nearly 5 percent after a UBS analyst downgraded it and cut its price target.

Belgian brewer, InBev, said Monday it wants to replace the entire Anheuser board in an increasingly hostile unsolicited bid to takeover the Bud brewer.

Shares of Yahoo helped the Nasdaq stave off bigger losses on reports that a deal with Microsoft may be regaining some traction.

Treasury prices rallied. The 10 year note slumped, lowering the yield to 3.9 percent from 3.97 percent.

In currency trading, the dollar rose versus the euro and gained against the yen.

COMEX gold for August delivery fell $4.80 to settle at $928.80 an ounce.

The Nikkei average slid 2.5 percent today to its lowest close in nearly three months, dragged lower by financials such as top lender Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group amid renewed credit fears. The Nikkei fell 326.94 points to close at 13033.10, its lowest close since April 15.

UK stocks closed almost 2 percent higher on Monday as energy companies rebounded after last week's fall, while lower crude prices boosted travel and leisure companies. The FTSE100 closed 99.9 points higher at 5512.7 after falling 2.1 percent last week.

Despite falling crude prices, heavyweight oil stocks featured among leading gainers as traders said the sector had been oversold in recent sessions. BP, Shell and Tullow Oil rose 3.7-4 percent. Deutsche Bank also raised the price target on both BP and Shell.

US crude retreated close to $140 a barrel, taking a pause from a record breaking rally that has lifted prices by almost 50 percent this year. The falling oil prices helped buoy First Group, Easyjet and British Airways 4-7.2 percent. British Airways also benefited after Air France reported a 2.6 percent rise in June passenger traffic.

Carphone Warehouse added 6.2 percent after Goldman Sachs rated the company a "buy". Among other retailers, Marks and Spencer remained weak, down 4.4 percent, as analysts continued to cut their forecasts and price targets after last week's profit warnings, and on fears Chairman Stuart Rose will face a rebellion at tomorrow's shareholder meeting. Sainsbury added 3 percent after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to "overweight" from "neutral".

Concerns over the health of the economy remain however, as official data showed British industrial output fell much more than expected in May, raising the possibility that economic growth was near standstill in the second quarter.

Persimmon slid 3.4 percent ahead of a first half trading update today, and after the Daily Telegraph said the company would confirm that it has made 1000 staff redundant. The housebuiling sector remained under pressure, with Taylor Wimpey. Redrow, Bovis Homes and Bellway all falling.

Economics
UK DCLG House prices (May) 09.30 bst

The DCLG (formerly ODPM) house price index is the last of the house price indices to be released for May so contains relatively little news, but the market is very sensitive to UK housing data at present. Annual inflation to moderate to 3 percent.

US Pending homes sales (May) 15.00

Pending home sales could fall back after rising 6.3 percent in April, but we expect a relatively small decline of 1 percent in May. This would leave the pending sales index of 5 percent above its cycle low (in March) and down 11 percent year on year. There have been some signs of bottoming in recent housing sales and construction data, and there may be further improvement in the months ahead.

US Wholesale inventories (May) 15.00 bst

Wholesale inventories are seen rising 0.7 percent in May. Some of the recent build-up in areas like autos may be the consequence of slower sales, but the overall inventory-to-sales ratio remains very low.

US Consumer credit (May) 20.00 bst

Revolving credit debt rose by a smaller than usual USD0.3BN in April, but it is too early to say that the momentum behind consumer credit has slowed. Total April consumer credit increased by USD8.9bn, boosted by a large rise in non revolving debt. A further increase of USD 60bn in May is expected.

The details published in this e-mail are intended for information only and should not be construed as advice under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Aventus Capital Management will not accept responsibility for any actions taken (or not taken) on the basis of information published in this e-mail. 

Aventus Capital Management is a trading name of Rickerbys LLP (OC328675) registered in England and Wales, registered office Ellenborough House, Wellington Street, Cheltenham GL50 1YD. A list of the Members of Rickerbys LLP will be provided on request or can be inspected at this address. Aventus is a trade mark and the “A” logo is a registered trade mark of Rickerbys LLP. Rickerbys LLP is regulated by the Solicitors Regulation Authority. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. 

 

 


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